Throughout the NHL playoffs, I have forecasted each round si

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Throughout the NHL playoffs, I have forecasted each round simply by using shots on goal and goaltender save percentage to come up with a baseline for the series. Wholesale Air Jordan 1 Australia . Its not intended to be some magical formula and doesnt apply any context, like, for example, taking injuries into account. This remedial statistical method has gone 9-5 in picks through the first three rounds. Heres a quick look at the five series that went the wrong way: In the first round, Columbus came in ahead of Pittsburgh, though that required Sergei Bobrovsky to perform better than Marc-Andre Fleury (not an impossibility given Fleurys playoff track record), but Fleury and Bobrovsky each had a .908 save percentage in Round One and Pittsburgh dominated puck possession to an extent that they did not during the regular season. Minnesota upended Colorado, in Game Seven overtime, which wasnt altogether surprising. I would have easily been able to talk myself into the upset had the Wild not gone into the series with Ilya Bryzgalov as their starting goaltender, because the Wild were a superior possession team. Darcy Kuemper returned for four games and helped tilt the series back in Minnesotas favour and Semyon Varlamov, whose regular-season play fueled the Avalanches top seed finish, was only okay in the postseason, posting a .913 save percentage in seven games. The touchiest series for this years playoffs was the San Jose-Los Angeles matchup in Round One. The forecast had the Sharks favoured by the slimmest of margins (18.15 expected goals to 18.09 expected goals) and, when they had a 3-0 series lead, that coin flip looked to be falling the right way. We know how that has turned out since that point. In the second round, the Boston Bruins were favoured over the Montreal Canadiens, and while the Bruins controlled large portions of the series, they couldnt solve Carey Price, who had a .936 save percentage in the seven-game upset. Then, in the Conference Finals, the forecast put the Chicago Blackhawks over the Los Angeles Kings, due to a goaltending advantage, because Kings goaltender Jonathan Quick hasnt been great in this years playoffs. After what was a sensational series, it was safe to say that neither team held a goaltending advantage -- both Quick and Corey Crawford struggled -- and the Kings took Game Seven in OT. So, those misses are on the record as we head into the Stanley Cup Final. The expected goals for each team in the series are determined by taking each teams shots for and against over the course of the season, as well as through the first round of the playoffs, and splitting the difference. So, for example, the New York Rangers, over the regular season and playoffs have averaged 32.4 shots on goal per game and the Los Angeles Kings have allowed 27.0 shots on goal per game; the average of those two numbers, 29.70 shots, is the number that is then multiplied by (1 - the opposing goaltenders save percentage) to determine an expected goals per game for the Rangers. Finally, the number is multiplied by seven to indicate an expected goal total for a seven-game series. Theres no guarantee that scoring more goals in a series will result in winning four games first, but the odds certainly favour the team that scores more. So, lets see how the numbers shake out for the Final: Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Los Angeles 31.5 27.0 Jonathan Quick 0.912 16.54 N.Y. Rangers 32.4 29.1 Henrik Lundqvist 0.922 18.30 Verdict: While the Kings and Rangers are very similar in their playoff puck possession rates, the Kings were tops in the league during the regular season and ran through a more difficult gauntlet in the Western Conference to reach the Cup Final. The difference in shot rates during the regular season is pretty small, however, with the Kings earning 54.7% of the shots as the Rangers earned 53.0% of the total shots. Over the course of a game, that amounts to about one extra shot on goal; hardly the kind of difference that couldnt be overcome by better goaltending. Which brings us to the advantage to which the Rangers will cling. Lundqvist has been one of the games top goaltenders since coming into the league in 2005-2006, and is performing at a high level in this years playoffs as well, so couldnt he stop an extra shot or two per game? At the other end, Jonathan Quick has traditionally been a very good playoff goaltender in his own right, but his .906 save percentage this year has dropped Quicks all-time playoff save percentage to .922, falling fractionally behind Lundqvist. Certainly, some of the blame for this seasons save percentage can be attributed to the calibre of teams that the Kings have faced on their way to the Cup Final, with San Jose (sixth), Anaheim (first) and Chicago (second) all among the top-scoring teams in the league this season. By comparison, the Rangers got through Philadelphia (eighth), Pittsburgh (fifth) and Montreal (21st), so there is some quality of competition favouring Quick. It would be an upset if the Rangers won the series but a seven-game series, if otherwise close, can easily be decided by goaltending and, right now, its not unreasonable to hold higher expectations for Lundqvist. Lets see if King Henrik can get the job done. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy Sports on Facebook. Air Jordan 1 Outlet Australia . Louis Blues were workmanlike, methodical and -- most of all -- effective on Monday night. Cheap Jordan 1 Australia Sale . Lexie Lou earned a commanding 4 1/2-length win Sunday in the $500,000 Woodbine Oaks. http://www.cheapairjordan1australia.com/ . The Brazilian driver had the second-best time in last months tests at Jerez and said the "good start" could play to his advantage when the season gets underway in Australia in March.Sochi, Russia (SportsNetwork.com) - Speed skating has belonged to the Netherlands at the Sochi Olympics and that did not change on Tuesday. The Dutch swept another event, grabbing three more medals in the mens 10,000 meters at Adler Arena. Jorrit Bergsma was the top finisher in Tuesdays event, setting an Olympic record with a time of 12 minutes, 44.45 seconds in the grueling race. Sven Kramer was 4.57 seconds off Bergsmas time, while Bob de Jong finished at a distant 13:07.19 seconds, 22.74 ticks off Bergsmas incredible time. Still, de Jong earned bronze and gave the Netherlands a total of 19 medals in speed skating during these Olympics. Twelve of those medals have been won by the men. It marked the fourth event in Sochi that the Dutch have swept. The women won all three medals in the 1,500 meters, while the men also filled the podium in the 500 and 5,000 meters. Bergsma cllaimed a bronze in the mens 5,000 back on Feb. Cheap Jordan 1 Australia. 8, with Kramer taking gold. However, it was the 28-year-old Bergsma coming out on top Tuesday in a repeat of his first-place finish at the 2013 World Single Distances Championships, also held in Sochi. For Kramer, he may view his silver as a disappointment. The 27-year-old, who picked up his sixth Olympic medal with his second of Sochi, was in line to win this event four years ago in Vancouver, but was disqualified for an illegal lane change. It also was the fourth Olympic medal of de Jongs career and each has come in this event. That includes a gold in 2006 and a bronze four years ago. South Koreas Lee Seung-Hoon, who took gold in Vancouver after Kramers DQ, finished fourth on Tuesday with a time of 13:11.68. American Emery Lehman, 17, finished 10th, one spot ahead of fellow U.S. skater Patrick Meek. ' ' '